Post-COVID-19 economic growth scenarios for Mexico City

Abstract

The objective of this work is to identify post-pandemic recovery scenarios for Mexico City based on different trajectories of labour productivity. Based on the concepts of economic contagion, spatial effects and spatial productivity, the contribution of this work lies in the estimation of a spatial panel model that allows simulating post-COVID economic recovery scenarios. Results show the benefits of implementing an investment policy for certain strategic sectors in the different municipalities of Mexico City, namely higher value added sectors, knowledge-intensive services, green industries, and sectors of high employment generation. These investment decisions could favour Mexico City for decades to come, locking it into a path of economic development that is both environmentally and socially sustainable.