Risk of eucalyptus tree failure and social acceptance of its removal in urban green areas of Mexico City

Abstract

Non-native tree species in cities present complex ecological and social management challenges. In Mexico City, eucalyptus trees have become a growing risk due to pest vulnerability and structural instability, during extreme weather events. Following a large-scale pest outbreak in 2003, a government program attempted to reduce eucalyptus populations, yet failed due to limited public awareness and the perceived benefits of these trees. This study integrates spatial multi-criteria decision-making (ELECTRE method combined with GIS) and social perception modeling (Generalized Mixed Linear Models), to inform urban tree management strategies. We analyzed five green areas in Mexico City (30 plots, 618 trees) and found that 23.3 % of plots were classified as high risk of failure, mostly in zones with intense public use. Social data (n = 150 respondents) showed that 42 % had witnessed a eucalyptus fall and 58 % supported removal and replacement with native species, although acceptance varied strongly by site. Results highlight that all areas contain plots with significant risk, and that public support depends on the perceived balance between ecological benefits and damages. A convergence analysis revealed a strong alignment between ecological risk and social experience, with a positive correlation (p = 0.70) between the risk index and the proportion of respondents who had seen a eucalyptus fall. This research highlights how aligning ecological risk modeling with social perceptions can strengthen urban forestry practices by identifying priority areas for intervention and improving public acceptance of tree replacement programs.